There’s a rule of thumb that three points make a trend. I realized this morning, as I was talking to a private equity investor, that I have seen three clear events that tell me that we close to a bubble bursting.
I have recently believed that executives should watch more disaster movies and read fewer business books. Granted, I think that most business books are simplistic and redundant, but my biggest beef is that they do little to prepare executives for the titanic changes that seem to be occurring with greater rapidity. Instead they wallow in trivial incrementalism. In a sense, they pat executives on the back and pass out participation ribbons for making layups.
Is it the best of times? Or the worst of times? Are ad tech and performance marketing companies crushing it? Or are the on the edge of a precipice? There are people arguing all sides of the question and an ocean of data to support any viewpoint.
The relationship between media owners and their readers and viewers continues to get more complicated. For many years advertising was the unavoidable tax that subsidized media. Now, with the rise of ad blockers and increasingly stringent privacy laws, consumers are becoming much more astute about the value of their time. Jun Group, where I am on the board of advisors, has developed compelling ad products that provide smart incentives for consumer engagement.
One of the most precious resources in any business is time. And yet, the same businesses that dispense nickels like they are manhole covers squander time like it’s water.
I had the opportunity to spent a exhilarating hour talking with my good friend, Lori Schwartz (@TechCatGirl) , about technology trends, how companies can be FutureFit, and why strategic planning processes turn out so badly, so often. You can here the episode here.
The names change but the story doesn’t. A Facebook partner discovers that even though Facebook told them that they loved them and valued the revenue that they drove, they were about to put them out of business. Expressions of stunned disbelief follow.
One of the continuing mysteries in American business is how companies can be blindsided by overwhelming market trends. These companies employ squadrons of MBAs who analyze and research the market. They go through extensive strategic planning processes, and then they completely miss the titanic meteor that’s screaming in from outer space to crush them.